The thing not mentioned here is my recent heads up on Yom Kippur. That would fit the bill.
If it kicks off that is when it will happen.
You see the vast very recent bunkerings of fuel by Israel is not their fast jets going anywhere.
No, they know that trade will collapse. No tankers calling to the West with fuel. No bulk carriers of wheat and food. No goods. Nothing.
This bunkering is insurance.
Whilst they suck up to their new bestest buddies the Chicomms and secure supplies from the East.
More insurance is the massive ABM shield left by the Juniper Cobra excercise.